De Alexandra Panaitescu 
AmCham Romania is pleased to share an internal analysis of Romania’s macroeconomic developments, outlining future trends.
The first edition of this intended quarterly report covers the first half of 2025. It explores the contribution of the main sectors and industries to Romania’s GDP, growth dynamics, labor market evolution, monetary and capital market conditions, projections for the twin deficits, and the impact of external factors.
This analysis is part of AmCham Romania’s ongoing efforts to provide members with reliable economic insights, data-based context for strategic decisions, and a better understanding of the policy and market developments shaping Romania’s business environment.
Following a marked slowdown and increasing imbalances in 2024, the deceleration of Romania’s economy persisted in the first half of 2025 (H1 2025), with real GDP increasing by only 0.3% YoY. Growth was mainly supported by construction and net taxes, while industry and services contributed negatively. Within sectors, engineering construction rose by 10.5%, driven by public infrastructure projects, while industrial output fell by 2%.
- On the expenditure side, household consumption and gross fixed capital formation were the main growth drivers (contributions to growth rate of 0.6 pp and 0.5 pp respectively), while government consumption and net exports weighed negatively (-0.2 pp and -1.4 pp), due to imports rising faster than exports (+5.6% vs. +2.8%).
- Overall, economic growth is projected to 0.6% for the entire 2025, followed by a rebound to 1.2% in 2026, according to the National Commission for Strategy and Prognosis (NCSP). Gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) is expected to increase by 2.8% for the whole year, with this trend continuing into 2026.
- Final consumption is projected to slow significantly in 2025 (+0.4% YoY) and 2026 (+0.5% YoY), following an increase of 4.8% in 2024. Government consumption is expected to enter negative territory, contracting by 2.1% in 2025 and 0.5% in 2026 (YoY), while private consumption is projected to grow only marginally, by 1.1% in 2025 and 0.7% in 2026.
- The labor market remained relatively stable in H1, with a marginal increase of 0.37% YoY in the number of employees. For 2025, the unemployment rate is projected at 6%. Youth unemployment remains alarmingly high, at 24.6% in Q1 and 22.9% in Q2, far above the EU average (~15%). For the whole 2025, the real average wage is expected to enter the negative territory (-0.4% YoY).
- The current account deficit widened to 8.7% of GDP (annualized), mainly as a result of a growing trade deficit fueled by the consistent budget deficit. On a positive note, net FDI inflows rose by 14.3%, and the share of the current account deficit financed through non-debt-generating sources reached almost 45%. Looking ahead, as domestic demand is expected to cool, this will contribute to a reduction in the trade deficit.
- Inflation surged after mid-2025, hitting 7.8% in July and 9.9% in August mainly driven by the removal of the energy price cap and increase in VAT rates and excise duties. The inflation rate is expected to peak in Q3, before easing to 8.8% by year-end, amid anticipated fiscal tightening. Under these developments, as expected, Romania continues to record the highest inflation rate in the EU.
- The current account deficit widened to 8.7% of GDP (annualized), mainly as a result of a growing trade deficit fueled by the consistent budget deficit. On a positive note, net FDI inflows rose by 14.3%, and the share of the current account deficit financed through non-debt-generating sources reached almost 45%.
- Credit to the private sector grew by around 9% YoY in H1, supported by both household and corporate lending, while bank deposits grew more moderately. Interest rates on corporate loans increased, while household borrowing costs declined slightly. Amid recent inflationary pressures, interest rates are expected to remain elevated in the near term.
- As regards the capital market, we have seen the Bucharest Stock Exchange (BSE) outperforming many regional and developed markets, with the BET index up by 25% as of Mid-September. Trading volumes rose, driven by increased government bond activity, while market capitalization reached RON 442.23 billion.
- In the public sector, the budget deficit stood at 4.04% of GDP (cash basis) in the first seven months, similar to 2024, but up 5.4 billion lei in nominal terms. Revenues increased by 11.8%, driven by dividends and personal income tax, while expenditures rose by 11.1%, mostly due to pension recalculations (+15%) and higher personnel costs (+8%). Alarmingly, interest payments surged by 45%, raising their share to GDP by 0.5pp, to 1.7% of GDP.
- The fiscal adjustment measures have been welcomed by the European Commission and the Government negotiated an increased budget deficit threshold for 2025, raising it to 8.4%, compared to the 7% initially set in the National Medium-Term Fiscal Structural Plan.
- Among the external factors impacting Romania’s economy, the U.S. tariffs are expected to negatively impact economic growth by 0.2–0.3 percentage points, based solely on the trade channel. This impact stems from both direct exposure and indirect exposure, with a more pronounced effect on the automotive sector.
