De Alin Ladaru 
The following analysis focuses on the dynamics of 2025, with updates from the early months of 2026, and includes an outlook on expected future trends. It explores economic growth and sectoral developments from both demand- and supply-side perspectives, while also assessing labor market conditions, financial market trends, the evolution of the twin deficits, and progress on project implementation under the NRRP.
Romania’s economy recorded modest growth in 2025, with real GDP increasing by 0.7% compared to the previous year, against the backdrop of tax rises aimed at fiscal consolidation and higher than expected inflation. Although economic performance showed a temporary improvement in the third quarter, overall momentum weakened significantly toward the end of the year. >> Read More
From a supply-side perspective, the construction sector made the largest positive contribution to economic growth, while information & communication services and agriculture also supported overall performance. This was partly offset by negative contributions from wholesale & retail trade and professional & administrative services. >> Read More
Projections for 2026 indicate modest economic growth of around 1%, primarily driven by investment, while both private and public consumption are expected to weigh on economic expansion. On the supply side, construction and agriculture are forecasted to remain key growth contributors, with industry dynamics expected to turn positive. >> Read More
Romania’s labor market weakened in the second half of 2025, driven by job losses in industry, agriculture, IT&C, and the public sector, with public employment ending the year below 2024 levels. Construction and services were the only sectors showing modest gains. The unemployment rate peaked at 6.3% in November before easing slightly to 6.1% by year-end, reflecting both cyclical and structural labor market challenges. >> Read More
Inflation accelerated in mid-2025 following the removal of the energy price cap and increases in VAT and excise duties, which added roughly 4 percentage points to headline inflation. By year-end, annual inflation stabilized around 9.7%, slightly easing to 9.3% in February 2026. The extension of the natural gas price cap until March 2027 mitigates some domestic risks, but external volatility could challenge the central bank’s year-end inflation forecast of 3.9% for 2026. >> Read More
Romania is expected to continue its fiscal consolidation in 2026, with the Budget Plan targeting a deficit of 6.2% of GDP, focusing on boosting revenue collection and maintaining tight control over current expenditures. Public investment is a key priority, projected at a record 8% of GDP, supported by EU cohesion funds and the Recovery and Resilience Plan, and is expected to offset weak private demand and sustain growth. >> Read More
Financial markets showed resilience in 2025 but faced heightened volatility in March 2025 due to geopolitical tensions. The Bucharest Stock Exchange (BET) index rose sharply in early 2026, peaking in February, before correcting slightly in the weeks that followed. >> Read More
Source: >>AmCham Romania, Macroeconomic Insights
